THE PROTEIN PULSE

Thursday Margin Monitor | October 29th, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for October 29th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Look inside today's report at what's actually shifting across the board. In beef, Choice grade boxed beef slipped to three sixty-nine while weekly export sales dropped forty-one percent. New orders are slowing even as physical shipments rose seventeen percent. In pork, December hog futures tanked to fifty-eight sixty a pound while new export sales surged thirteen percent, led heavily by Mexico. Don't treat a paper board drop like a blanket clearance sale when actual overseas demand is right there in the numbers. Overhead, December Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel futures pushed past four sixty a gallon. That screen rally won't change today's contracted freight rate, but watch the timing and terms of your fuel surcharges. Ignore the screen noise. Trade what lands at your dock.

HOST: Beef's demand signal weakens. Choice grade boxed beef fell to three sixty-nine and new export sales dropped forty-one percent, although physical shipments increased seventeen percent. Cattle futures retreated as lean-beef specifications diverged. Pork has an inventory test. New export orders rose thirteen percent, but September frozen pork stocks were nine percent above a year earlier, including hams up twenty-eight percent. Commitments must turn into movement before the inventory picture improves. Chicken supply grows into uneven demand. Broiler placements are above year-ago levels. Breast, dark-meat and wing conditions differ. Brazil's Newcastle restrictions remain destination-specific. Fuel and animal-health risk rise. December West Texas Crude and Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel advanced. Arizona confirmed screwworm in a dog, triggering localized controls without a confirmed cattle infection.

SHAWN: Choice grade fell three twenty-two to three sixty-nine and Select grade lost three sixty to three fifty-five twenty-five, leaving a thirteen seventy-five spread. December live cattle settled at two twenty-seven thirty-three, down three fifty-three. January feeders fell five to three forty-two ten. Western Corn Belt live cattle traded mostly at two twenty-four, down about three. Lower cattle costs and wholesale values alone do not determine packer margins. Net beef export sales for October 16th to 22nd totaled eleven thousand metric tons, down forty-one percent from the previous week and thirty-three percent below the four-week average. Shipments increased seventeen percent to twelve thousand nine hundred metric tons. A persistent booking slowdown would affect forward production before it appears in current shipments. Fresh eighty-fives averaged two ninety-nine October 28th, down twelve oh two cents from October 26th. Fresh fifties fell six eighty-one cents from October 27th to seventy-nine. Fresh nineties averaged three ninety, up one sixty-seven cents from October 26th. No national fresh eighty-five or ninety transactions were reportable October 27th. Reduced domestic non-fed slaughter and distinct imported supply channels provide context, not a proven cause. The next comparable sales and firm offers will show whether the specification split survives into forward negotiations. That distinction matters for both spot negotiations and the risk of fixing forward prices against a temporary weighted-average move. Arizona screwworm detection remains localized. A dog in Cochise County tested positive October 28th. Authorities established a twenty-kilometer response zone and movement controls. No cattle infection or new border-port closure is established. Columbus, New Mexico, resumed feeder-cattle imports October 26th. Actual movement orders and crossing volumes determine livestock exposure.

HOST: December lean hogs settled at fifty-eight sixty a pound, down three forty-three, while later 2027 contracts gained. Negotiated hog carcasses fell one thirty-eight to fifty-six fifty-six on six thousand six hundred sixty-three head. The pork cutout slipped sixty-four cents to seventy-two forty-five. Butts dropped two ninety-four to ninety-six fifteen and ribs four thirty-one to one thirty-six twenty-eight, while bellies rose to seventy-six sixty-two. The individual primals, not the composite alone, govern sales exposure. Pork net sales reached forty-two thousand three hundred metric tons for October 16th to 22nd, up thirteen percent. Mexico booked twenty-three thousand three hundred metric tons. Shipments rose fifteen percent to thirty-seven thousand six hundred metric tons, including eighteen thousand two hundred to Mexico. Yet September 30th frozen pork stocks stood at four hundred twenty-seven point eight one three million pounds, nine percent above a year earlier. Hams totaled one hundred sixty point six five eight million pounds, up twenty-eight percent, and frozen loins were up twenty-five percent. Total stocks fell approximately one percent from August. The near-term issue is whether booked demand translates into enough physical movement to clear ham and loin inventories without further concessions. October orders cannot be credited with clearing September stocks, nor do those stocks explain Wednesday's price moves by themselves. Ham and loin holders face a different clearance challenge than sellers exposed to current negotiated hog prices. Canada Packers' earnings show processing exposure. Third-quarter sales totaled four hundred twenty point seven zero million Canadian dollars. Adjusted EBITDA fell from a pro forma fifty-six million to thirty-one point five zero million, down forty-three point eight percent. The twenty-eight point one zero million Canadian dollar net loss included a forty-seven point six zero million noncash biological-asset valuation adjustment. Japanese currency exposure and processing changes compounded weak pork conditions, illustrating why company earnings cannot be inferred from U.S. cutout prices.

SHAWN: For the week ended October 24th, hatcheries set approximately two hundred forty-six million eggs and placed one hundred eighty-eight million chicks. Cumulative placements reached approximately eight point two one billion, two percent above last year. October 28th broiler commentary pointed to pressured boneless breast prices, firmer dark-meat movement and mixed wing demand. More birds will not deliver uniform revenue growth across cuts. The relationship between expected placements and cut-level orders will shape the sales mix before aggregate production statistics show the effect. A coalition is seeking an optional no-antibiotics-ever chicken category for school meals. No federal adoption or purchase award has occurred. Supplier eligibility and actual orders would determine its importance. A second Santa Catarina-area detection left importing-country restrictions differentiated by origin. Brazil modeled nine hundred fifty-four million dollars in hypothetical annual export losses avoided through regionalization versus nationwide bans, not recorded savings. Establishment and destination eligibility, rather than the model, drive current business. Reser's introduced higher-protein chicken, tuna and egg salads. The chicken version lists fifteen grams per serving. The expansion tests convenience-driven demand within established deli categories, but provides no confirmed incremental meat volume. Platts assessed imported nineties at three oh eight F-C-A U.S. East Coast October 27th. Domestic fresh nineties averaged three ninety F-O-B plant October 28th. Different origins, specifications, dates and delivery bases prevent treating the price gap as realized landed savings. Stakeholders seek streamlined Sonora procedures, with Chihuahua disease safeguards also under discussion. No rule has changed. Actual veterinary requirements and border capacity will determine access. Beginning October 26th, USDA consolidated Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico reporting. Negotiated cash cattle trades had fallen from over half of reported transactions in 2005 to under eighteen percent in 2025, limiting regional publication. The new geography may restore reportable information but does not add negotiated trades. Formula-linked buyers should not assume direct comparability with historical five-area prices. December corn rose three cents to four fifty-two a bushel. January soybeans lost five cents to twelve thirty-eight a bushel. December meal gained one ten to three thirty-five seventy a short ton. October 16th to 22nd soybean export sales totaled two point five eight million metric tons, including one point six three million to China. Bean commitments and meal costs are different exposures. December West Texas Crude rose two eighty-eight to one oh two seventy-eight a barrel. December Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel gained four sixty-seven cents to four sixty-six a gallon. Freight effects depend on contract resets. Russia reportedly authorized Kerch Strait grain departures through November 15th, but shipments and delivered cost effects remain unconfirmed.

HOST: Procurement radar. Pork stocks. Monitor. Compare ham and loin clearance with actual export loadings, not order headlines. Beef lean supply. Monitor. Test whether new transactions and firm offers sustain the eighty-five ninety price separation. Chicken cut mix. Monitor. Reconcile anticipated bird availability with contracted breast, dark-meat and wing demand. Freight. Monitor. Identify Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel surcharge reset dates and affected transport volume. Southwest cattle. Monitor. Follow Arizona animal-movement orders and verified port status. The confirmed case was in a dog.

SHAWN: Pork inventory clearance is today's clearest physical-market test. Export bookings have improved, but September's elevated frozen stocks, especially hams, remain the measurable exposure until shipments and domestic demand work through them. Forward beef decisions face slower new export orders and a divided lean market. Chicken sellers face more potential birds and uneven demand by cut. Price risk is moving differently across products, not uniformly with futures. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Thursday Margin Monitor for October 29th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.